WMT, JPM, F: More than 60% of CEOs Expect U.S. to Enter Recession Within Six Months

WMT, JPM, F: More than 60% of CEOs Expect U.S. to Enter Recession Within Six Months

By Steven Orlowski, CFP, CNPR
April 14, 2025

More than 60% of U.S. CEOs now expect the nation’s economy to slip into a recession within the next six months, according to a recent survey by The Conference Board. The growing pessimism among corporate leaders comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, elevated interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Executives at some of the country’s most influential companies—including Walmart (NYSE: WMT), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)—are preparing for a potential economic downturn that could test consumer resilience and corporate earnings in the second half of 2025.

Corporate Sentiment Worsens

The Conference Board’s latest CEO Confidence Index, released last week, shows that confidence has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022. Notably, 61% of surveyed CEOs said they believe a recession will begin by the end of Q3 2025. That’s up from 52% in the previous quarter.

"While the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience over the past year, the cumulative effects of tight monetary policy and weakening global demand are starting to weigh on business sentiment," said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

Sector Highlights: Retail, Finance, and Manufacturing

In the retail sector, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon has expressed concerns about changing consumer behavior, noting that shoppers are becoming more price-sensitive and delaying discretionary purchases. “We're seeing a shift back to essentials,” McMillon said during the company's last earnings call. “Customers are clearly feeling the pinch, and we expect that to continue into the back half of the year.”

Over in finance, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that higher-for-longer interest rates, commercial real estate stress, and elevated credit card delinquencies could begin to significantly strain both businesses and consumers. “While the economy remains strong for now, there are serious storm clouds on the horizon,” Dimon remarked during a recent financial conference.

Ford Motor Company, representing the manufacturing and industrial sector, is preparing for potential disruptions in consumer auto demand and supply chain logistics. CEO Jim Farley recently cited cost inflation and labor challenges as key concerns. “We're preparing for a more conservative economic environment through the rest of 2025,” Farley said.

The Fed Factor

At the heart of CEO anxiety is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing commitment to restrictive monetary policy. Despite calls for rate cuts, Fed officials have signaled a cautious approach as inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The federal funds rate remains anchored above 5%, a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated the central bank’s wait-and-see stance, saying, “We need to see more evidence that inflation is durably moving down before considering any changes to the policy rate.”

What’s Next?

While recession fears mount, some analysts argue that the U.S. economy could still engineer a "soft landing"—a scenario in which inflation cools without triggering a full-scale contraction. However, the growing consensus among corporate leadership suggests that even a mild recession would have ripple effects across employment, consumer confidence, and capital investment.

Investors and policymakers will be watching closely as Q2 earnings season approaches, looking for signs of slowing demand and margin compression across sectors. In the meantime, companies across the board are tightening their belts and reassessing their forecasts.

One thing is clear: with the majority of CEOs bracing for impact, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the U.S. economy can avoid a hard landing—or succumb to the weight of its own momentum.