Stock Market Today: Tariff Talks Drive Another Up-and-Down Day

Stock Market Today: Tariff Talks Drive Another Up-and-Down Day

Trade War Negotiations Heat Up as the “Fear Gauge” Swings Wildly

By Steven Orlowski, CFP, CNPR

Wall Street is riding another roller coaster, with stocks swinging from gains to losses and back again as investors digest every nuance of the ongoing U.S.–China tariff negotiations. Tuesday’s trading session was defined by volatility, with market sentiment shifting by the hour based on conflicting headlines out of Washington and Beijing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day down 112 points, or 0.3%, after rising as much as 200 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out a modest 0.1% gain. The mixed finish comes as investors struggle to interpret the direction of global trade policy—and its implications for corporate profits and economic growth.

At the center of the storm are negotiations between the U.S. and China, which have resumed after weeks of silence. While both sides are expressing cautious optimism, the lack of a concrete timeline and the repeated breakdowns in previous talks are keeping traders on edge.

Fear Is the New Normal

Nowhere is that anxiety more evident than in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the market’s "fear gauge." The VIX spiked as high as 19.4 during morning trading—up nearly 15% from yesterday—before retreating slightly by the close. It's a clear signal that investors are still bracing for more turbulence ahead.

“Everyone’s looking for a bottom, but no one wants to call it,” said Lisa Tran, chief market strategist at Evermark Securities. “We’re in this strange holding pattern where bad news sparks panic, and good news just makes people more suspicious.”

Sectors in Flux

Cyclicals—especially industrials and materials—felt the brunt of today’s volatility. Shares of multinational giants like Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA) swung wildly amid concerns about export demand. On the other hand, defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples saw modest inflows, as investors sought shelter in steadier ground.

Technology stocks were a relative bright spot, helped by a late-day bounce in chipmakers. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) both posted gains of more than 2%, fueled by hopes that a resolution to the trade conflict could unlock stalled global demand.

Bottom-Fishing and Bargain-Hunting

Despite the uncertainty, some investors are starting to dip their toes back in. Trading desks report increased interest in beaten-down names, especially among hedge funds and retail investors hoping the worst is over.

“We’re seeing early signs of bottom-fishing,” noted Raj Patel, an equity strategist at HarborView Capital. “People are combing through the wreckage for quality names that have been unfairly punished.”

Still, Patel cautioned that without a clearer picture from the trade talks, any rally is likely to be fragile. “Until we get some actual resolution, not just rumors, the market’s going to stay twitchy.”

Looking Ahead

All eyes remain on the next round of trade discussions, expected to continue through the week. With economic data softening and corporate earnings season around the corner, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

“The market’s trying to price in hope, but hope isn’t a strategy,” said Tran. “We need real policy clarity—and soon.”

Until then, traders should brace for more whiplash. In a market gripped by uncertainty, even a single tweet can move billions.